The Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) is the civilian foreign intelligence service, the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the General Staff is the military intelligence service, and the Federal Security Service (FSB) is a national security service also performing some intelligence tasks abroad. Russia has three main intelligence services operating abroad. The responsibility for covert influence activities lies with the Russian intelligence services, and they are using various methods, including cyber activities and agents, or human intelligence in this work. Influence activities are here defined as activities aimed at influencing someone to agree with your opinions or do what you want (Collins, 2017). This study does not pretend to reach a final conclusion regarding Russian influence activities for one reason, as we shall see later, the use of these sources poses its own challenges. These findings can then supplement other sources and open for further and more profound studies of the topic. Secret services work to reveal covert activities, and this study will establish an understanding of these services’ view on the totality of Russian influence activities, the broad range of tools and techniques employed, and much detail on the execution of these activities. It is difficult to assess the truthfulness of sources and accuracy of information, and it also involves dealing with denial, deception and disinformation. Such influence activities are often covert, and studying this topic is challenging. It is based on about 40 annual reports from 15 intelligence and security services in 11 Western countries. It will examine current thinking and perceptions about Russian influence activities among Western secret services. The purpose of this study, covering the period 2014–18, is to improve understanding of how Russia is conducting political influence activities against Europe. It is, however, essential to understand that in the Russian tradition the role of influencing societies and decision-making processes is equally important, and some claim even more important (Karlsen, 2016: p. The general Western understanding was that intelligence services’ main role is to collect information. 40).ĭuring the cold war, the Soviet Union had an extensive and complex apparatus for disinformation and influence operations. Not least, the Russian services are also attempting to present their point of view to the public and to use their contacts to exert influence (BfV, 2015: p. Russia´s priority is gathering early information about the views of the Federal Government, political parties, and institutions, regarding the handling of the crisis and future German policy towards Russia. These influence activities are of large-scale, and the threat should be taken seriously, but the reports studied also indicate that the effects of these activities are limited. Finally, military force is Russia’s ultimate tool of influence. It has an extensive network of allies and front organizations, and reconstructs reality and rewrites history to legitimize itself and undermine others. Russia also uses the energy sector, business, and corruption as venues for influence. Human intelligence and cyber operations are important covert tools of influence. Minorities, refugees, and extremists are used to further this divide and rule approach. The population is mainly reached through media and social media, exploiting divisive issues. Russia is targeting the West through a divide and rule approach, using multiple tools of influence. Russia also has more specific objectives related to each individual country. In the shorter term, it is to lift the sanctions imposed after the Russian intervention in Ukraine in 2014. The long-term objective of Russian influence activities is to weaken NATO and the EU. These influence activities support three main Russian strategic objectives: regime security, predominance in Russia’s near abroad, and world-power status for Russia. According to these secret services, Russia is the foreign state that tries to influence European politics and decision-making most, and more so than China and other states. This activity is by nature covert, and the analysis given in these reports from Western secret services complements other research and shows the broad range of tools and techniques employed for political influence, and much detail on the execution of these activities. It examines current thinking and perceptions on this topic among Western secret services and is based on an analysis of approximately 40 annual reports from 15 secret services in 11 Western countries, covering the period 2014–2018. The purpose of this study is to improve understanding of how Russia is conducting political influence activities against Europe.
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